A ForesightOps Podcast · First Sunday, Every Month

    Dead Reckoning.

    Foresight is not compulsory. Neither is survival.

    A podcast about strategic foresight and emergent strategy. The planning apparatus is failing and the consequences are measured in billions. Better strategies come from listening to the fringe, not optimizing from the center. This show is for the people who go there. The future is already here. It is just not evenly distributed. And it is definitely not in the conference room.

    Will Evans / ForesightOps FounderSeason One · August 2026

    About the Show

    Navigating uncertainty is a discipline.

    Most organizations treat uncertainty as a condition to survive. The ones that outlast them treat it as a landscape to navigate. The difference is infrastructure: the methods, the sensing capability, and the decision architecture that connect observation to commitment.

    Dead Reckoning unpacks the foundations of strategic foresight, emergent strategy, and ForesightOps as a disciplined practice. Each episode goes deep on one layer: the structural failures that make organizations blind to their own environment, the observation methods that surface signal before the mainstream has language for it, the sensemaking practices that turn signal into strategic options, and the decision frameworks that connect intelligence to action.

    The best sensing has always happened at the fringes. Before it had a name, before it had a framework, someone was in a room the industry never entered, paying attention. Dead Reckoning is where we build the discipline in public.

    Season One

    Twelve episodes. One cycle.

    Arc I / Observe / Episodes 01 to 03

    Navigating Blind.

    The problem space. Why organizations discover change too late.

    01

    Sunday, August 2, 2026

    The Street Finds Its Own Uses.

    What happens when an entire industry loses the ability to see what is right in front of it.

    New York, 1981 to 1984. The record industry grinding disco into diminishing returns. At the fringe, a technological revolution collapses the cost of production. The Roland TR-808 drum machine, the Technics SL-1200 turntable, the four-track recorder. Tools designed for one purpose, repurposed by the street into instruments of creation. A twenty-year-old NYU student hears the cultural threads running through punk and hip-hop communities that the industry treats as separate markets. He produces a record in a Queens studio for $135. It electrifies every club in New York. Within a decade, hip-hop generates the first African American billionaires. The signal was there the whole time. In rooms the industry never entered. This episode introduces the Sensing Gap, the seven barriers that prevent intelligence from reaching strategy, and the disciplined practice of paying attention that the street has always understood.

    The Sensing GapGibson / Burning ChromePerez ICT RevolutionOODAWebb CIPHER

    Monday Practice

    Go to one room your organization is not in. Take the 7-Question Sensing Gap Diagnostic. Identify one context where your customers operate that nobody from your team has visited in 90 days. Go there this week. Bring your eyes.

    02

    Sunday, September 6, 2026

    Full Pipeline. Wrong Bets.

    Agile addressed engineering. DevOps addressed delivery. Nobody addressed the question of whether we are building the right things.

    03

    Sunday, October 4, 2026

    The Fitness Trap.

    Peak fitness for the wrong landscape. The organizations that optimized fastest are the ones caught first.

    Arc II / Orient / Episodes 04 to 06

    Where Signal Lives.

    The fringes. OODA. Behavioral epistemology. The rooms the industry never entered.

    04

    Sunday, November 1, 2026

    The Phase Everyone Skips.

    Boyd built the most accurate model of why organizations lose. Almost nobody applies it to the question it actually answers.

    05

    Sunday, December 6, 2026

    The Crux.

    Observed behavior outperforms stated preference for strategic purposes. This is the foundational claim.

    06

    Sunday, January 3, 2027

    The $400 Bet.

    The sensing gap is not closed by hiring more researchers. It is closed by building a network of trained observers embedded in the environment.

    Arc III / Navigate / Episodes 07 to 09

    Learning to Observe.

    Synthesis as creation. Futures literacy. Scenario planning from observed signal.

    07

    Sunday, February 7, 2027

    Synthesize, Not Translate.

    Translation is one-to-one mapping. Synthesis is an abductive act of creation that produces something new.

    08

    Sunday, March 7, 2027

    Futures Literacy.

    Most organizations use the future unconsciously. They do not know they are doing this. And because they do not know, they cannot change it.

    09

    Sunday, April 4, 2027

    Four Futures. None of Them Predictions.

    Scenario planning grounded in observed signal. Strategies that perform well across all four are robust bets.

    Arc IV / Activate / Episodes 10 to 12

    Placing Better Bets.

    From signal to commitment. Evidence-traced decisions. The discipline. The invitation.

    10

    Sunday, May 2, 2027

    The Assumptions You Have Never Named.

    Every strategy has load-bearing assumptions. Most organizations cannot name theirs.

    11

    Sunday, June 6, 2027

    Emergent Strategy.

    Strategy is not a plan. It is a central rule designed to unify action around busting the bottleneck. When the bottleneck migrates, the rule must follow.

    12

    Sunday, July 4, 2027

    Building ForesightOps.

    This category exists in practice. There are people building exactly this right now. This is the name. The infrastructure. The invitation.

    Start Here

    Start with the diagnostic.

    Seven questions. Five minutes. The number you get is your sensing gap score. Most organizations discover it is wider than they thought.

    Take the Sensing Gap Diagnostic →