Working papers
Published openly
The QuarterlyForesightOps Quarterly · Spring 2026Volume 1, Issue 01. The 2026 AI Data Is Telling Three Stories. Threatcasting the AI deployment through three anomalies, the Perez turning point, four futures, and six no-regret moves to authorize this quarter. Announced in The Signal Beneath the Hysteria.CompanionFour FuturesThe threatcasting companion. Four threat models, each a person in a place doing a thing, Rachel, Kim, Priya, and David, each paired with the moves that meet their moment. Abstract threats produce abstract plans.
Working paperThe Field SynthesisForty years of strategic foresight, from scenario planning to anticipatory governance, synthesized into one intellectual tradition.Working paperThe Sensing GapThe structural failure between observation and decision, and the diagnostic that measures it. Why organizations that do everything right still get blindsided.Tools & diagnostics
Run against your own organization
DiagnosticSensing Gap DiagnosticReads how well the organization sees its world. Seven capabilities, seven conditions, twenty-seven questions.Risk frameworkPRISMNine risk dimensions with hard gates. The screen that catches what does not pay before capital commits.Economic modelOEEM · ρ = V / (C + R)The financial model the CFO keeps and re-runs. One reproducible number that prices value against cost and risk.
Strategy Is the Making
A forthcoming book by William Haas Evans · Visit the book site →
01The Great UnravelingA plan seeks coherence through specification. Strategy seeks coherence through choice, learning, and adaptation.02Patterns in the StormThe future rarely announces itself with a downbeat. More often the grammar changes while the old song is still being played.03The Living SystemJazz creates freedom through disciplined form and coherence through reciprocal attention. Its musicians can depart because they know what must continue.04Navigating UncertaintyThe first work of judgment is to know what kind of not knowing is present.05Time as MaterialAdaptive strategy is enacted through time, which functions as its medium: the material to be worked, as stone is worked by a sculptor and silence by a drummer.06Designing TransitionsTransition design creates the conditions for an organization to gain competitive advantage and renew it as its world evolves.07The Regenerative OrganizationAn organization can learn to observe more fully, to move more intelligently, and to leave the systems it lives inside with a greater capacity to create what comes next.
Reference
The corpus behind the practice