ForesightOps
    Library

    Frontier practice in foresight, strategy, and operating-model design. We build the instruments that test the ideas.

    At the edge of these fields the answers do not exist yet, so we work like scientists. We form the hypothesis, build the instrument that tests it, and publish what holds.

    Working papers
    Published openly
    The QuarterlyForesightOps Quarterly · Spring 2026Volume 1, Issue 01. The 2026 AI Data Is Telling Three Stories. Threatcasting the AI deployment through three anomalies, the Perez turning point, four futures, and six no-regret moves to authorize this quarter. Announced in The Signal Beneath the Hysteria.Vol 1 · 32 pp. · 28 minCompanionFour FuturesThe threatcasting companion. Four threat models, each a person in a place doing a thing, Rachel, Kim, Priya, and David, each paired with the moves that meet their moment. Abstract threats produce abstract plans.Companion · 4 scenarios
    Working paperThe Field SynthesisForty years of strategic foresight, from scenario planning to anticipatory governance, synthesized into one intellectual tradition.Methodology · 42 pp.Working paperThe Sensing GapThe structural failure between observation and decision, and the diagnostic that measures it. Why organizations that do everything right still get blindsided.Diagnostics · 38 pp.
    Tools & diagnostics
    Run against your own organization
    DiagnosticSensing Gap DiagnosticReads how well the organization sees its world. Seven capabilities, seven conditions, twenty-seven questions.Run the diagnosticDiagnosticOperational Health DiagnosticFinds the binding constraint across predictability, transparency, and stability. Run in production at Fortune-100 scale.Run the diagnosticRisk frameworkPRISMNine risk dimensions with hard gates. The screen that catches what does not pay before capital commits.Screen a portfolioEconomic modelOEEM · ρ = V / (C + R)The financial model the CFO keeps and re-runs. One reproducible number that prices value against cost and risk.Score an outcome
    The adaptive strategy series
    Beyond Planning · 3 of 7 live · Listen to the playlist →
    01The Great UnravelingWhy classical strategic planning collapses when the environment stops holding still.LIVE02Patterns in the StormEmergent strategy, and the difference between constraints that restrict and constraints that enable.LIVE03The Living SystemThe organization as a living structure that reproduces its own conditions, and how to shift them.LIVE04Navigating UncertaintyStrategy as negative capability: acting inside uncertainty without collapsing it into false certainty.SOON05Time as MaterialTime as a strategic design medium. Working across horizons at once.SOON06Designing TransitionsMoving an organization from planned to adaptive is itself a design problem.SOON07The Regenerative OrganizationA strategy that strengthens what it touches, beyond sustainability to regeneration.SOON
    Reference
    The corpus behind the practice
    ReferenceThe Cicero ChallengeThe scholarly foundation the foresight practice was synthesized from. Ninety peer-reviewed articles, ninety public reflections, over ninety days, organized across eight intellectual threads. Co-authored by Charles Plath and William Haas Evans.90 articles · 8 threads